Parameterization of tropical cyclones landing intensity-precipitation at various scales for probable maximum coastal flood scenario development
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摘要:为开展可能最大洪水-风暴潮灾害情景设定，在已有可能最大热带气旋参数设定研究的基础上，引入热带气旋降水这一气象参数，探索了热带气旋强度-降水参数设定方法框架．基于中国气象局的热带气旋最佳路径-强度、美国联合台风预警中心的最大风速半径，以及中国自动站与 CMORPH 融合降水等数据，统计分析了热带气旋最大风速、中心最低气压、最大风速半径、小时降水量等参数间的定量关系，并构建了可能最大热带气旋关键参数设定的方法．结果表明：1) 基于已有可能最大热带气旋参数设定方法，引入降水这一参数后，能够设定不同等级热带气旋登陆时的关键参数，为可能最大洪水-风暴潮复合情景模拟提供输入数据；2) 通过线性拟合以及多倍标准差，能够确定参数可能的最大上限，MSW与最低气压、最大风速半径呈负相关关系，与小时降水的最大值、第99百分位值，以及总和存在明显的负相关外包络线；3) 若样本分布较分散，可通过分段研究与极值函数拟合相结合的方法，探索数据分布的不确定性及参数间相关关系，在此基础上，探索不同概率水平的小时降水总量以及外包络线．研究结果可为沿海地区热带气旋防灾减灾救灾和风险管理提供决策依据．
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关键词:
- 热带气旋/
- 可能最大洪水-风暴潮/
- 可能最大降水/
- 参数设定/
- Gumbel函数拟合
Abstract:To carry out the setting of the probable maximum flood-storm surge composite disaster scenario, we add the parameter of tropical cyclone precipitation to the previous studies on the setting parameters of probable maximum tropical cyclone. Thus, the process of constructing a methodological framework for setting tropical cyclone intensity-precipitation parameters is explored. Based on the best track dataset of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, the radius of maximum winds from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and the precipitation data obtained by fusing observations from Chinese automatic stations with CMORPH products, we statistically analyzed the quantitative relationships between key parameters of tropical cyclones and constructed a method for setting parameters such as maximum sustained wind, central minimum pressure, the radius of maximum wind, and hourly precipitation. It is found that, based on previous methods for setting parameters for probable maximum tropical cyclones, the addition of precipitation as a meteorological parameter can better develop the critical parameters for different levels of tropical cyclone landfall and provide input data for probable maximum flood-storm surge composite scenarios. Then, the upper limit of the probable maximum intensity can be effectively determined by a linear fit of the parameter relationship plus multiple standard deviations. The central maximum wind speed is negatively correlated with the central minimum pressure and the radius of maximum wind. There is a significant negative outer envelope correlation with the maximum hourly precipitation, 99th percentile of hourly precipitation, and total hourly precipitation. In addition, if the sample distribution is scattered, the uncertainty of the data distribution and the correlation between the parameters can be explored by a combination of interval discussion and extreme value function fitting, based on which total hourly precipitation at different probability levels and the outer envelope are investigated. The results of this study can provide a basis for decision-making on tropical cyclone prevention, mitigation, relief, and risk management in coastal areas. -
图 11949—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋所有路径点和登陆点样本的
${\boldsymbol{W}}_{\bf{max}}$ 与$ {\mathit{P}}_{\mathbf{D}} $ 关系
图 21998—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋路径点样本的
${\boldsymbol{W}}_{\bf{max}}$ 与$ {\boldsymbol{P}}_{\bf{max}} $ 关系
图 31998—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋路径点样本的
$ {\mathit{W}}_{\mathbf{m}\mathbf{a}\mathbf{x}} $ 与${\boldsymbol{P}}_{\bf{max}}$ 关系
图 41998—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋路径点样本的
${\boldsymbol{W}}_{\bf{max}}$ 与${\boldsymbol{P}}_{\bf{99th}}$ 关系
图 51998—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋路径点样本的
${\boldsymbol{W}}_{\bf{max}}$ 与${\boldsymbol{P}}_{\bf{total}}$ 关系
图 61998—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋路径点
${\boldsymbol{W}}_{\bf{max}}$ 和${\boldsymbol{P}}_{\bf{total}}$ 拟合关系表 1不同等级PMTC情景下设定的最大风速
PMTC等级 近中心最大平均
风速范围/( m·s－1)近中心最大
风力范围/(级)最大风速
设定值/( m·s－1)热带低压 10.8~17.1 6~7 17.1 热带风暴 17.2~24.4 8~9 24.4 强热带风暴 24.5~32.6 10~11 32.6 台风 32.7~41.4 12~13 41.4 强台风 41.5~50.9 14~15 50.9 超强台风 ≥51.0 16或以上 — 
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表 2海南省海甸岛不同等级PMTC登陆时强度-降水参数设定
台风强度 $ {W}_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $
/( m·s－1)$ {P}_{\mathrm{c}} $
/(hPa)$ {W}_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $/(km) $ {P}_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $
/(mm)$ {P}_{99\mathrm{t}\mathrm{h}} $
/(mm)$ {P}_{\mathrm{t}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{l}} $/(mm) P= 0.020 P= 0.010 P= 0.005 外包络线 台风 41.4 938 70.1 359 156 22 189 25 174 28 190 86 097 强台风 50.9 923 66.7 312 137 23 956 27 008 30 100 78 612 超强台风 84.0 865 55.0 146 71 30 113 33 396 36 753 52 529 下载:
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