Spatial and Temporal Dynamic Distribution of Extreme Rainstorm in Beijing Based on UMAP and HDBSCAN
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摘要:极端暴雨具有历时短、雨强大、破坏性强等特点，是引发城市内涝的主要原因之一，探究其时空动态分布规律有助于提高城市内涝风险精细化管理水平．本文以北京市2004-2016年308个气象站点的降雨资料为研究样本，利用UMAP降维算法和HDBSCAN聚类算法构建了各类极端暴雨事件的时空动态分布模型，首次提取了北京市全域4类极端暴雨模式 ：1）模式一：暴雨集中在主城区，并围绕主城区缓慢移动；2）模式二：暴雨从西南山区途经主城区，向东北方向移动；3）模式三：暴雨自西部山区向主城区西北部扩散，最后向主城区北部方向移动；4）模式四：暴雨从西部山区途经主城区向东移动．研究结果表明：北京市极端暴雨的主要类型为短历时降雨过程，暴雨中心在空间上均存在从西向东移动的趋势．其中，主城区、东南山区以及南部平原地区面临相对更高的极端暴雨风险．各类极端暴雨的模式特征物理机制明确，其重构特征可以充分表征实际暴雨事件特性．研究成果可为北京市降雨设计、城市内涝风险管理等工作提供一定的参考．Abstract:Extreme rainstorm has the characteristics of short duration, strong rain and strong destructiveness, which is one of the main causes of flash flood and waterlogging disasters. Exploring the spatial and temporal dynamic distribution of extreme rainstorm is helpful to predict its development process. In this study, a method of clustering combined with dimensionality reduction algorithm was proposed to extract the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of extreme rainstorm events. Using the precipitation data of 308 meteorological stations in Beijing from 2004 to 2016, the spatial and temporal dynamic distribution models of various extreme rainstorm events were constructed by introducing HDBSCAN clustering method. Combined with the UMAP dimensionality reduction algorithm, four types of extreme rainstorm models in Beijing were extracted for the first time : 1) Mode 1: Rainstorm concentrated in the main urban area, moving slowly around the main urban area ; 2) Mode 2: Rainstorm moves from the southwest mountainous area through the main urban area to the northeast ; 3) Mode 3: the rainstorm spreads from the western mountainous area to the northwest of the city, and finally moves to the north of the city ; 4) Mode 4: Torrential rain moves westward from western mountain area to urban area. The results show that the main type of extreme rainstorm in Beijing is short-duration precipitation, and the rainstorm center has a tendency to move from west to east in space. Among them, the downtown area, the southeastern mountainous area and the southern plain area face relatively higher extreme precipitation risks. The physical mechanism of model characteristics of all kinds of extreme rainfall is clear, and the reconstruction characteristics of rainfall events can fully represent the actual rainfall events. This study can provide an important basis for flood forecasting and scientific management in Beijing.
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Key words:
- extreme rainstorm/
- UMAP/
- HDBSCAN/
- dynamic spatiotemporal distribution/
- Beijing
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