Drivers and decoupling effects of carbon emissions in Northwest China
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摘要:西北地区经济快速增长的需求与“双碳”目标的矛盾是其亟待解决的重要难题．文章选取西北地区2011—2019年的数据，采用碳排放系数法核算能源消费碳排放，并运用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，研究了能源结构、能源强度、经济产出和人口规模对碳排放水平的影响；构建Tapio脱钩模型，对碳排放与经济发展的脱钩指数进行测度，并分析了碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系．研究表明：（1）陕西省是西北地区碳排放量最大的省份，其次是新疆、甘肃、宁夏和青海．（2）经济产出和人口规模会促进碳排放，与经济产出相比人口规模对碳排放的影响较小；能源强度会促进碳减排；能源结构对碳排放的作用存在两面性．（3）碳排放总量、碳排放强度、人均碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系均有向强脱钩转变的趋势；陕西、甘肃、新疆和青海的碳排放总量、碳排放强度、人均碳排放与经济发展实现了强脱钩．研究结果丰富了碳排放驱动因素与脱钩效应的相关研究，为西北地区协调区域经济发展和削减碳排放提供了针对性的政策建议．Abstract:The contradiction between the demand of rapid economic growth and the “double carbon” target in Northwest China is an important problem to be solved. The article selects the data of Northwest China from 2011 to 2019, adopts the carbon emission coefficient method to account for the carbon emissions of energy consumption, and uses the LMDI method to study the influence of energy structure, energy intensity, economic output and population size on the carbon emission level. . The study shows that (1) Shaanxi Province is the largest province in northwest China in terms of carbon emissions, followed by Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai. (2) Economic output and population size will promote carbon emissions, and the impact of population size on carbon emissions is smaller compared with economic output; energy intensity will promote carbon emission reduction; and the role of energy structure on carbon emissions has two sides. (3) The decoupling relationships of total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission and economic development all tend to change to strong decoupling; Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang and Qinghai achieve strong decoupling of total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission and economic development. The findings enrich the research related to carbon emission drivers and decoupling effects, and provide targeted policy recommendations for coordinating regional economic development and reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China.
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Key words:
- Northwest China/
- Carbon emissions/
- LMDI model/
- Driving factors/
- Decoupling effect
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表 1八种化石能源碳排放计算参数
能源类型 原煤 焦炭 原油 汽油 煤油 柴油 燃料油 天然气 折标煤系数/$\left( {t\left( C \right) \cdot {t^{ - 1} } } \right)$① 0.7143 0.9714 1.4286 1.4714 1.4714 1.4571 1.4286 1.3300 碳排放系数/$\left( {t\left( C \right) \cdot {t^{ - 1} } } \right)$② 0.7559 0.855 0.5857 0.5538 0.5714 0.5921 0.6185 0.4483 备注：①来自《中国能源统计年鉴》；②来自IPCC指南. 
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表 2脱钩程度判别标准
脱钩状态 脱钩程度 $\Delta C$ $\Delta D$ 弹性$t$ 负脱钩 扩张负脱钩 $ > 0$ $ > 0$ $ > 1.2$ 强负脱钩 $ > 0$ $ < 0$ $ < 0$ 弱负脱钩 $ < 0$ $ < 0$ $0 < t < 0.8$ 脱钩 弱脱钩 $ > 0$ $ > 0$ $0 < t < 0.8$ 强脱钩 $ < 0$ $ > 0$ $ < 0$ 连结 衰退脱钩 $ < 0$ $ < 0$ $ > 1.2$ 扩张连结 $ > 0$ $ > 0$ $0.8 \leqslant t \leqslant 1.2$ 衰退连结 $ < 0$ $ < 0$ $0.8 \leqslant t \leqslant 1.2$ 数据来源[24] 下载:
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表 3西北地区碳排放水平
年份 碳排放量/亿t 人均碳排放/人 碳排放强度/吨万元 2011 3.97 4.09 1.48 2012 4.36 4.45 1.45 2013 4.33 4.40 1.31 2014 4.48 4.52 1.23 2015 4.63 4.62 1.18 2016 4.68 4.64 1.11 2017 4.81 4.73 1.07 2018 4.61 4.48 0.95 2019 4.68 4.53 0.91 下载:
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