Detection and attribution analysis of hotspots of ecosystem gross primary production change in China
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摘要:检测并分析生态系统总初级生产力(GPP)变化的热点区域，有利于理解生态系统碳循环过程，为生态环境保护治理提供参考依据．本研究结合趋势分析与热点分析检测中国GPP变化的热点区域，从热点区和像元两个尺度探讨了自然和人类活动对热点区GPP变化的影响．结果表明：1982—2017年中国GPP总体呈增加趋势，变化均值为1.92 gC·m -2·a -1；GPP正向变化的热点区域位于川西高原、黄土高原、华北平原及云贵高原；GPP负向变化的热点区域位于藏南、长江三角洲和东南沿海地区；研究考虑的3个自然因子中，气温与GPP相关程度最高；以气温和人类活动为主导因素的像元比例最高，达43.86%．气温和人类活动在各热点区域的影响方向不同，总体上在GPP显著增加的4个热点区域都起到了促进作用，在GPP显著减少的3个热点区域都起到了负面影响．Abstract:Terrestrial gross primary production(GPP) is a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. Detecting the hotspots of GPP change and analyzing its impact factors are helpful to understand the process of ecosystem carbon cycle and provide reference for ecological environment protection and management. This study combines trend analysis and hotspot analysis to detect hotspots of GPP changes in China and analyzes the impact of natural factors and human activities on GPP changes. We found that GPP has an increasing trend from 1982 to 2017 in China, with an average change of 1.92gC·m −2·a −1. The hotspots with significant positive GPP change are located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Loess Plateau, the North China Plain and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The hotspots with significant negative GPP change are located in the southern part of Tibet, the Yangtze River Delta and the southeast coastal areas. The combined influence of temperature, precipitation and radiation on GPP is greater than that of single natural factor, in which the correlation between temperature and GPP is the highest. The proportion of pixels with temperature and human activities as the dominant factors of GPP change was the highest, accounting for 43.86%, followed by temperature (26.86%). The influence of temperature and human activities differs in different hotspots. On the whole, they played a positive role in four GPP increasing hotspots and a negative role in three GPP decreasing hotspots.
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表 1热点区域GPP变化主导因素占比(%)
主导因素 所有热
点区域GPP增加的
热点区域GPP减少的
热点区域气温和人类活动 43.86 48.60 15.01 降水和人类活动 0.69 0.55 1.65 净太阳辐射和人类活动 1.52 1.29 3.05 气温 26.86 26.01 31.57 降水 2.47 1.80 7.01 净太阳辐射 5.88 4.35 15.49 人类活动 7.01 7.38 4.71 本研究考虑的因素都不是主导因素 11.70 10.01 21.51 
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表 2不同主导因素区人类活动变化情况
主导因素 夜间灯光平均变化
趋势/(DN·a-1)植被变化百分比
(转入-转出，%)人类活动主导 1.38 −1.67 人类活动和自然
因子共同主导1.36 −1.86 自然因子主导 1.23 −1.59 下载:
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